As territorial boundaries lose importance.
USA is no longer the largest economy Nor are India or China
It is Asia outside India & China Population of Asia (Excluding India and China)
As of 2023, the total population of Asia was approximately 4.7 billion people. Subtracting the populations of China (1.4107 billion) and India (1.428 billion), the population of the rest of Asia is about 1.86 billion people.
This figure encompasses diverse regions including East Asia (e.g., Japan, South Korea), Southeast Asia (e.g., Indonesia, Vietnam), Central Asia (e.g., Kazakhstan), Western Asia (e.g., Turkey, Saudi Arabia), and South Asia (e.g., Pakistan, Bangladesh). These estimates are based on mid-year data from sources like the United Nations and World Bank, which align closely across reports.
GDP of Asia (Excluding India and China)
Asia’s total nominal GDP in 2023 was approximately 41.4 trillion USD (derived from regional aggregates in IMF and World Bank data). Excluding China’s GDP of 17.52 trillion USD and India’s 3.55 trillion USD (revised estimate from IMF), the GDP of the rest of Asia is roughly 20.33 trillion USD. This remaining GDP is driven by major economies like Japan (~4.2 trillion USD), Indonesia (~1.4 trillion USD), South Korea (~1.7 trillion USD), and Saudi Arabia (~1.1 trillion USD), reflecting a mix of manufacturing, energy exports, and services.
Note that these are nominal figures (not PPP-adjusted) for consistency, and slight variations may occur.
Now come to USA
Full-year 2025 nominal GDP is forecasted by the IMF and BEA to reach around $29.8 trillion (annual average), up from $28.3 trillion in 2024.
These figures are based on seasonally adjusted annual rates. Nominal GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced, unadjusted for inflation, and positions the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. But not in real terms. Purchase power is a far greater measure of affluence (and happiness)
USA has to battle to retain supremacy. To remain solvent (it is insolvent already). To remain relevant in a fast changing world whose leadership is shifting to the Himalayan region. It is not so much about usa, China, India, Japan, Russia.
UK, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium are losing relevance. Or have already become irrelevant. Agreed Italy makes good shoes or France makes good wine. Or the britishers make good stories. The reality is that most goods consumed in Germany come from China and whilst they make good beer and sourdough bread, nothing much will be missed if Germany were to be hit by an asteroid and destroyed.
The piece that matters is Asia outside of India, China, Japan and Russia. This is the piece which will decide the new world order. And whilst it is a fragmented lot, it is as much of a country as India is a continent. Our success as a country will depend on the success of our foreign policy in these countries. ASEAN and Middle East is key.