NextGen telco doesn’t need any spectrum
Cordless and not wireless is the future
When hierarchy dies, networks die
Death is a great levellor. In the end we are all dead. It is true for a person, a company or a country. Change is the only constant. Longevity can extend lifespan but within limits. You cannot beat nuclear energy with a better coal fired thermal power plant. You cannot beat a mobile network with a better landline network. Or beat digital cameras with a better film camera.
So if you are an Airtel or a Jio.
What do you do ?
You go public, dump the shares on the public. And look for the next big thing. It was good while it lasted. They are the last two standing. And they deserve a standing innovation for taking India from bottom of the tables to the very top. India had among the highest teledensity, lowest costs of data and best quality of service. The companies are now triple play companies providing voice, data and video.
Their most important asset is not the network but the spectrum which they have paid a fortune for.
Or so they thought.
The telcos no longer have a lock on the customer. Number mobility allows customers to shift operators. But the number itself is redundant. Calling has shifted to apps like WhatsApp. They use a better codec so voice is clearer. Besides they are free. But then nothing is actually free. They snoop on your calls and text and make a meal ticket out of your most private conversations.
But going back to spectrum. RF communication takes up too much power and has too little capacity. The telco networks are way too complicated. They are also way too expensive. And that is because they need expensive equipment and even more expensive right of way.
Mobile networks are only for the road. Indoors people shift to WiFi which is connected to a fibre link. It is cordless rather than wireless. The nearer your base station – better your speed. 4g or 5g – nothing competes with WiFi. This is because the WiFi base station is in the house. Finally the laws of science cannot be violated. Even if you are a Adani or Ambani.
Free space optics is redefining connectivity on the road. It effectively puts a WiFi access point in every car. So long as you have a car nearby, your phone will work. And when out in the wilderness your phone will connect to the pseudo satellite at 1 gbps. Consuming very little power. Light is not RF spectrum. It has no monopoly. RF cannot beat optic. Free space optics was a really hard problem. The key word is “was”. After it is solved, it doesn’t matter how hard it was.
Of course mobile will have a market. Just like landlines have a market today. But bulk of usage will move to data centre links. And it is unlikely you will get your data centre link via RF. It is also unlikely that a telco will provide the fibre link. That will be provided by the builder or real estate developer. The builder in turn will buy a fibre link from the building to the data centre.
