Telco networks have to be reinvented
Using existing telco networks for ai
Is akin to using copper for broadband.
Mtnl and BSNL died for just two reasons. They couldn’t put up cell sites in adequate numbers and could not migrate from copper to fibre fast enough.
India will see the launch of its first born ai network. A network designed ground up for ai. Not an old obsolete network retrofitted for ai. Legacy and migration are hard. Sure, Airtel and Jio have both the need and the muscle to scuttle it UNLESS the regulator prevents them. The regulator did a great job in helping Airtel to battle bsnl and Mtnl. It did a great job again when it helped Jio from being decimated by incumbents like Airtel.
Now the challenge for Airtel and Jio is to fight the ai natives. New networks built for an ai age. Which Jio and Airtel are not.
Airtel and Jio follow a hierarchical network. There is a circle level core and from there the capacity keeps thinning down till you reach the customer handset. It has too many layers and complexities.
India has a liberalised telecom policy (at least on paper) and anyone can set up a telecom network. The telco duopoly is a license to print money – both for the players and the govt tax collectors. The customer however gets a raw deal and has to pay Rs 300 pm for a service which can be easily delivered for Rs 49. The rest are profits of cartelisation aided by a lack of corrective competition. And taxes.
This sets the stage for new players. The first player likely to get off the block is an ai native network with virtualised terminals. This means you and I don’t have to necessarily carry smartphones. We could connect via a ring or watch or spectacle or even a locket or earring. These devices will need to use emerging protocols and standards. At the same time, the ai network has to support legacy devices like smartphones and laptops or tablets even though they are obsolete.
The three main technologies shaping the emerging telco architecture are air borne cell sites, free space optics and device virtualisation. In short this means that your smartphone will shift into the network and essentially just your AirPods or watch will be left with you. A lot of the network elements will need to be crowdsourced and installed by the users at their own premises.
The end result will be that network connectivity will be ultra fast and ultra cheap. Think Rs 99 for a 1 gbps connection, maybe even faster. A cloud location like a website or a memory bank will also connect likewise. As will your car, cycle or microwave.
Things and not people will form bulk of the subscribers and they will connect to ai apps. It will not be viable or beneficial to bill the things. People will be maybe one percent of the subscribers.
A new architecture
Will result in new leaders
It is not likely that Airtel and Jio can pivot
So they will go the way of mtnl and bsnl.
