For India, the Middle East is home to 10 million Indians. And the geopolitics of the region have changed irreversibly.
Less than two months ago, I was at the Alabbar School of Managemet at the Raffles University at Neemrana near Delhi.
For the un-initiated, Dr Mohammad Alabbar is the Middle East’s numero uno real estate baron. The younger brother of the King, Dr Alabbar is the only graduate among the thirteen princes and princesses of the Dubai Royal Family. He owns Emaar and built the iconic Burj Khalifa and other landmarks all over Dubai. His footprint extends from Singapore and Manhattan to Central London and New Delhi. He is one of the figures who has redefined Dubai – and made real estate a key growth engine for Dubai. Buyers of Indian origin account for USD 3 billion of annual real estate sales in Dubai alone – often attracted by the golden visa offered to anyone investing USD 500k.
Dr Alabbar is well travelled and articulate as can be seen from the video above. But all of a sudden his real estate empire is in shatters. And so is the USD 10 billion+ investment made by Indians legitimately – and several times more made with illegitimate funds by various citizens of Dubai attracted by the proven inability of the Indian govt to deport wanted criminals from Dubai back to India.
And it is this failure which has become the root cause of Dubai’s success. And this is about to change thanks to Iran.
War or peace, Dubai is ruined. The Havala Bank which extended the money laundering reach of Dubai into other financial capitals like London, Singapore and New York is refusing to return money held on coded accounts. It is hard to use legal routes to get back illegitimate money. The Havala Bank is struggling to keep afloat after having shut down operations in India a couple of years ago. Clients and capital had been moved to Dubai to get around increased surveillance in India. This is not the first or last bank in the Middle East unable to honour commitments. Force Majeure is after all a good enough reason to get out of all agreements and commitments.
But it doesn’t stop at real estate and money laundering alone. Travel and tourism will never be the same again. The main airport lounge at Dubai airport was bombed. The future of Dubai as a aviation hub is in danger and Emirates will soon need a bailout. Dubai has little oil to fall back on. Hot money, of illegitimate origin moves quickly.
This war is not going to stop, even if hostilities do. And Dubai is no friend of either Israel or Iran.
The end of Dubai.
Could signal the rise of India.
In the Global Banking Industry.
If only we open up crypto.