Combined impact – ai, climate, longevity
Positions India uniquely in the new order
Megatrends seem to favour India
The Indian government has zero role to play in our next cycle of progress. Any contribution from the govt is of course welcome but it is actually meaningless.
There are five megatrends shaping global power:
1. collapse of central banks and rise of trustless systems — the banking system does not have the ability to clear its liability side. In short that means that banks globally cannot repay fixed deposit or bond holders from business earnings. FD holders have to be repaid from new FDs or from infusion of new capital. The entire banking ecosystem in short is a Ponzi scheme collecting savings money from the poor to provide it to the rich who in general have niether the intention nor the ability to repay. Most Fiat currencies are now not worth the paper they are printed on. If interest rates are artificially kept high, currencies start losing value. Trust shifts from those unworthy of trust to those not requiring trust. Bitcoin will eventually triumph over the U.S. dollar. Gold will return. Paper currencies will become worthless.
2. collapse of multilateral development banks and global institutions. World Bank and United Nations type organisations or WHO / NATO / SAARC have no role going forward. For the first time it is each for himself and god for all. In no one can we trust. Peace guardians are becoming perpetrators of war.
3. collapse of planetary equilibrium — droughts, floods, plandemics and climate events profoundly affect societies. Fall in fertility and losing relevance of marriage / multi generational living. As societies get older, pension funds will go bankrupt. The Robinhood system of governance where a few people work to feed the rest is unsustainable.
4. collapse of human supremacy as super intelligence becomes a reality — competition in areas like AI and advanced chips will decide future economic and geopolitical dominance. Cycle times are getting shorter. Steam engine took 50 years. Internet took ten. Ai will take five. One year is already over out of the five.
5. Collapse of govt business case. Free energy, free data and free income tax. This not only makes geography history, it also destroys telcos, discoms and most of the comparative advantages of rich countries and the business case of their governments. The radical price of the internet age was free. Valuation used to neutralise losses. The ai age is about personalised pricing. Four people walk into a supermarket. Each will see a different price tag on the same product. Govts no longer have the ability to collect a tax on income. Their only option is to tax consumption. If India doesn’t abolish income tax, there will be no domestic income left to tax.
