The Mughal Empire
The Sahara Empire
Who is next ??
Empires die. Nothing lasts forever. Businesses too die. We don’t buy anything made by Rockfellor. And soon we won’t own anything made by General Electric. Most kids today don’t know of Kodak or Premier Automobiles. Or of business groups like Orkay (at one time bigger than Reliance) or airlines like Panam or watches like HMT. In their hey days, all of these were iconic. At one time, even the half of Reliance which is now dead used to rock.
In the end, death is a levellor. You either grow or grey. There is no steady state. You either double or you die. But how can you keep doubling. Sometime it has to stop. See what happened to the house of Sahara.
I recall meeting his two sons at the Sahara Hotel in Mumbai and then at their tastefully furnished house at Greater Kailash in Delhi. Both the kids were smart. The father was in jail and they were trying to sell assets to get him out. They were sincere, hard working and educated. Their wives are sisters – convent educated, cultured and cosmopolitan.
The father died and they fled the country to merge into the nothingness of England. Never to return. Not even for their fathers cremation.
The same fate will await our other corporate groups. Kingfisher / UB is finished. So is the KK Modi empire (with family members squabbling for the spoils). The House of Raymonds has an uncertain future. Will the others – Tatas, hdfc, L&T, Infosys, Birlas last much longer.
The House of Birlas ends in three grandsons – Kumaramangalam, Siddharth and Yash. I have worked with all three. How long will the legacy last ? And in what business. Unable to face competition, most are selling their businesses to focus on real estate and or finance. Being family run has more disadvantages than advantages. The professionally managed, board run company works best. Which is why, Kumaramangalam is better off than Yash or Siddharth. But then, what does he really have to show. Adani is king of cement and his retail is puttering along. Aluminium and rayon are areas of their dominance but are niether growing nor very profitable.
So who are going to be the next Adanis or Ambanis ??? To some, it is clear. For most, there are none. In all, we have around 12 players who seem to be heading for the business leader crown. Most are IITians. None are family managed businesses. All are global and mass market
But they are not there yet.