It is mathematically impossible
To predict the future. What we can do
Is a better job of understanding the NOW
Lawyers love to use the term “conditions precedent”. The term is used to list a set of events which must take place for the agreed event to happen. So for your kid to get school admission, you (or your spouse) need to give birth to a child, before that you need to get married, for that you need to find a partner etc etc.
So much so that after you have ticked all the boxes, a whole bunch of new answers are also found. For example, it is confirmed that the parents were fertile and child birth was successful. One also finds that there is an illusion of choices. But in reality there are very few. So it may seem that an eligible indian lady has a choice of maybe 100 million spouses. But in reality – after you apply all the filters from age and religion to geography and education – the options are very few in reality. Add personal idiosyncrasies and maybe you can’t find anyone suitable at all.
The same is true of inventions. They sprout out when conditions precedent have been met. And the lucky ones win the race to be first.
But then what is luck. Luck is when opportunity meets preparedness.
The conditions precedent for LLM to happen started appearing around 2010 when people started looking for computing power to mine bitcoins. Bitcoin, probably the only IT product to be invented out of India – is also the greatest IT product ever built. It has a current value of close to USD 2 Trillion and has facilitated transactions of at least usd 25 trillion. The conditions precedent for LLM were met only in 2020. The first LLM got launched in 2022 and was a runaway success. Nvidia and OpenAI just happened to be the most prepared.
History also tells us that inventions sprout concurrently. Once glass grinding for lenses became practical – telescopes sprouted in multiple locations. There is still a fight as to who invented the telephone. Or the airplane. This is because, when conditions precedent are met – inventions sprout in multiple locations. And the inventors are completely unrelated.
So what are the domains where conditions precedent are being fulfilled as we speak. Actually there are several. Interstellar travel is ready to take off. As is undersea exploration. We are at the cusp of free energy. And genetically designed life.
There are several others which are being covered in the book, “Megaspheres” which itself has been in planning for years. Waiting for conditions precedent to be fulfilled.
Our vedas got it right when they said “waqt se pehle or jaroorat se jyada kuch nahin hota” or “nothing happens before its time or before it is needed”.
What we are about to witness is an acceleration in rate of innovation which has never been experienced in history. This will result in the end of life as we know it. And a re invention of life in a format which may not be to our liking. It will affect health, wealth, relationships …
